WDPN32 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 09W (IMBUDO) WARNING/
NR 20//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 211200Z6 TO 251200Z0 JUL 2003.
   A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 09W (IMBUDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL LUZON, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON A 
211130Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON 
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 125 AND 140 KNOTS. A RECENT 
MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CONCENTRIC EYEWALL FEATURE. 
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE MID-LEVEL STEERING 
RIDGE TO THE NORTH REMAINS INTACT, THEREFORE STY 09W CONTINUES TO 
TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
   B. STY 09W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE 
CENTERED JUST EAST OF OKINAWA. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF 
NOGAPS, NCEP (GFS), COAMPS, JGSM, JTYM, GFDN, AFWA, AND EGRR 
CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. AFWA AND JTYM 
ARE THE TWO OUTLIERS TO THIS FORECAST SOLUTION WITH BOTH MODELS 
SHOWING A MORE POLEWARD SOLUTION. DUE TO THE RECENT TRACK 
EQUATORWARD OF PREVIOUS GUIDANCE, THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND 
OF PERSISTENCE AND THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS 
EMPHASIS ON AFWA AND JTYM.
   C. STY 09W WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 
HOURS DUE TO A CONTINUED STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. STY 09W 
WILL WEAKEN AS IT PASSES OVER LUZON, BUT IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY 
AS IT EXITS INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THIS WILL BE MADE POSSIBLE DUE 
TO AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT WILL BE PRESENT ENHANCING THE 
POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPMENT OVER OPEN WATER. 
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A RECENT MICROWAVE PASS AND
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON MODEL FIELD ANALYSIS AND 
CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM.
   E. THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK HAS STY 09W CONTINUING ON A NORTHWEST 
TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. 
STY 09W WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF HONG KONG AND 
DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY 96 HOURS.
FORECAST TEAM: VILPORS/PIVIN/LAM/ANDERSON/ALLEN//

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