WDPN32 PGTW 210200
NAVOCEANO STENNIS SPACE CENTER MS//N16//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W WARNING NR 18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 210000Z3 TO 260000Z8 JUL 2003.
   A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 09W (IMBUDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN TIP OF LUZON, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING 
POSITION IS BASED ON A 202330Z0 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGE. 
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
OF 115 AND 130 KNOTS. A 202219Z6 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER 
PASS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CONCENTRIC EYEWALL. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS 
SUBSIDED WHILE THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL REMAINS.
   B. STY 09W (IMBUDO) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE 
MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE CENTERED JUST EAST OF OKINAWA. AVAILABLE 
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP (GFS), COAMPS, JGSM, JTYM, 
GFDN, AFWA AND EGRR CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS 
SCENARIO. AFWA AND JTYM ARE THE TWO OUTLIERS TO THIS FORECAST 
SOLUTION WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING A MORE POLEWARD SOLUTION AFTER STY 
09W CRESTS THE NORTHERN COAST OF LUZON, PHILIPPINES. THIS FORECAST 
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON 
AFWA AND JTYM.
   C. STY 09W WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 
HOURS DESPITE THE LOSS OF THE ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO A 
CONTINUED STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. STY 09W WILL WEAKEN AS 
IT APPROACHES LUZON DUE TO THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS 
FROM THE NEARBY LANDMASS. 
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 202219Z6 MICROWAVE PASS AND
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED 
SYSTEM.
   E. THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK HAS STY 09W CONTINUING ON A NORTHWEST 
TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. 
THIS PUTS TY 09W IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER 
REINTENSIFICATION BRIEFLY AS IT EXITS THE NORTHERN REACHES OF LUZON 
AND ENTERS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. TY 09W WILL MAKE 
LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF HONG KONG AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND.
FORECAST TEAM: GRUBER/AYALA/HEATH/EDBERG//