WDPN32 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 09W WARNING NR 16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 201200Z5 TO 251200Z0 JUL 2003.
   A. SUPERTYPHOON (STY) 09W (IMBUDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 595 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN TIP OF LUZON, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING 
POSITION IS BASED ON 201130Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. WARNING 
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 125 
TO 140 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS 
RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THERE IS AN EYE FEATURE 
WITH A DIAMETER OF 10 NM. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT 
STY 09W'S POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL 
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC (TUTT) CELL TO THE EAST. ADDITIONALLY, AN 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY THE LARGE 
ANTICYCLONE IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE.   
   B. STY 09W (IMBUDO) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK 
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING 
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, 
NCEP (GFS), COAMPS, JGSM, JTYM, GFDN, AFWA AND EGRR ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS 
OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. STY 09W WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
PROVIDED BY THE TUTT CELL TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. 
THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE 
ANTICYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS 
STY 09W TRANSITS NORTHERN LUZON, IT SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT 
INTERACTS WITH LAND AND LOSES THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A RECENT QUICKSCAT PASS. 
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED 
SUPER TYPHOON.
   E. THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK HAS STY 09W CONTINUING ON A NORTHWEST 
TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. 
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL EAST OF HONG KONG AND 
DISSIPATE OVER LAND. 
FORECAST TEAM: VILPORS/PIVIN/LAM/ANDERSON/ALLEN//

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