UNCLAS //N03145//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W WARNING NR/ 
04//
RMKS/
WDPN32 PGTW 171500
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 171200Z8 TO 221200Z2 JUL 2003.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (IMBUDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 
171130Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. WARNING INTENSITY IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. 
RECENT MICROWAVE AND ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES 
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE WITH BANDING FEATURES DEVELOPING 
AND WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. 
   B. TS 09W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS IT CONSOLIDATES 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER 24 HOURS, THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS 
EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK TO THE WEST AND TS 09W IS FORECAST TO TRACK 
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AVAILABLE 
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP (GFS), COAMPS, JGSM, JTYM 
AND EGRR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS 
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM IS PROVIDING 
ENHANCED OUTFLOW ALOFT TO TS 09W. TS 09W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT 
A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD IN A FAVORABLE 
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. 
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. 
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED 
SYSTEM.
   E. LONG RANGE FORECAST TRACK BASED ON A BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL 
GUIDANCE (AVN, EGRR, NOGAPS) AND FAVORS THE EGRR SOLUTION. TD 09W IS 
FORECAST TO BEGIN TO TAPER OFF IN INTENSIFICATION AFTER 96 AS IT 
BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/MOHAMMED/WAUGAMAN/NUTONGLA//

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