WDPN32 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W WARNING NR/ 
02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 170000Z8 TO 200000Z2 JUL 2003.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 09W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 162330Z5 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. A 162218Z0 SSM/I 
PASS INDICATES IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE 
LAST SIX HOURS. 
   B. A PASSING LONGWAVE TROUGH IS CREATING A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-
LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEAST OF TD 09W CAUSING A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK 
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER 48 HOURS, THE MID-
LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK TO THE WEST AND 09W IS 
FORECAST TO TRACK MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. 
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP (GFS), AND EGRR 
ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS 
BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. ANALYSIS OF THE UPPER LEVELS SHOWS A POINT SOURCE TO THE 
SOUTHEAST AND A TUTT CELL NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM PROVIDING GOOD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT. TD 09W IS TRACKING TOWARDS THE DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN 
THE STEERING RIDGE WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE, 09W IS 
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OR HIGHER THROUGH THE 
FORECAST PERIOD. 
   D. CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR 
AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM.
FORECAST TEAM: KENDALL/KLINZMANN/MECHANIC/BIRD//

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