WDPN31 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 08W WARNING NR 25//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 211200Z2 TO 230000Z6 JUL 2003.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 08W (KONI), CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER HAINAN, CHINA 
HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING 
POSITION IS BASED ON A 211130Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE, A RECENT 
QUIKSCAT PASS, AND SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED 
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55, 65 AND 77 KNOTS. 
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS 
INDICATE THAT TY 08W MADE LANDFALL APPROXIMATELY 30 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF QIONGHAI ON THE ISLAND OF HAINAN AT APPROXIMATELY 
211000Z4.
   B. TY 08W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE 
LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF 
NOGAPS, NCEP (GFS), COAMPS, JGSM, JTYM, GFDN, AFWA AND EGRR ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND 
OF PERSISTENCE AND THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. TY 08W IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT PASSES OVER HAINAN 
INTO THE GULF OF TONKIN. CONTINUED INTERACTION WITH LAND WILL 
FURTHER WEAKEN TY 08W AS IT EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES OVER VIETNAM AFTER 
36 HOURS.
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A RECENT QUICKSCAT PASS AND 
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED 
SYSTEM.
FORECAST TEAM: VILPORS/PIVIN/LAM/ANDERSON/ALLEN//

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