WDPN31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 08W WARNING NR 23//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 210000Z2 TO 230000Z6 JUL 2003.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 08W (KONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HAINAN, CHINA HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON A 202330Z0 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGE. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON 
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55, 65 AND 77 KNOTS. 
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION BEING SHEARED ON THE 
NORTHERN QUADRANTS OF TY 08W BY THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLIES. TY 
08W WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN CENTRAL HAINAN IN 12 HOURS.
   B. TY 08W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST UNDER 
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED 
TO THE NORTHEAST. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP 
(GFS), COAMPS, JGSM, JTYM, GFDN, AFWA AND EGRR. EGGR AND NOGAPS ARE 
THE TWO OUTLIERS WITH EGGR SHOWING A MORE POLEWARD BIAS AND NOGAPS 
IS A MORE EQUATORWARD BIAS, ESPECIALLY AFTER THE 36 HOUR TAU. THIS 
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. TY 08W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY UNTIL IT MAKES 
LANDFALL AT HAINAN, CHINA IN 12 HOURS. LAND INTERACTION WITH HAINAN 
WILL CAUSE TY 08 TO WEAKEN AS IT EXITS INTO THE GULF OF TONKIN.
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 202143Z2 QUICKSCAT PASS AND 
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED 
SYSTEM.
   E. LONG-RANGE FORECAST IS FOR TY 08W TO REINTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER 
THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF TONKIN AND THEN MAKE LANDFALL NEAR 
HANOI WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND.
FORECAST TEAM: GRUBER/AYALA/HEATH/EDBERG//