WDPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W WARNING NR/ 
01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 151200Z9 TO 181200Z2 JUL 2003.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM 
NORTHWEST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 151130Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED 
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. A 150911Z7 
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A BANDING FEATURE WITH A WELL-ORGANIZED LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS OF UW CIMMS DATA 
INDICATES A POINT SOURCE OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHEAST.
   B. TD 08W IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF 
THE L0W TO MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE 
TRACKING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE PHILIPPINES ALONG THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC 
AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP (GFS), AND EGRR ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE 
AND A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. ANALYSIS OF THE UPPER LEVELS SHOWS A POINT SOURCE TO THE 
NORTHEAST AND WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TD 08W SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH 
OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR. DUE TO MARGINAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK OUTFLOW 
CHANNEL, TD 08W SHOULD INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE 
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-
SIZED SYSTEM.
FORECAST TEAM: VILPORS/LAM/PIVIN/ALLEN/ANDERSON//

NNNN