UNCLAS //N03145// MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ WTPN31 PGTW 171500 1. TROPICAL STORM 08W WARNING NR 009 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 171200Z1 --- NEAR 11.3N5 123.0E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 11.3N5 123.0E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z9 --- 12.5N8 121.4E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z2 --- 13.6N0 120.2E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z0 --- 14.7N2 119.2E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z3 --- 15.9N5 117.9E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z5 --- 17.2N0 114.6E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z6 --- 17.6N4 111.7E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z7 --- 17.5N3 108.0E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT --- REMARKS: 171500Z4 POSITION NEAR 11.6N8 122.6E1. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W, LOCATED OVERLAND ON PANAY, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 171130Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS OVER LAND AND THAT THE CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z1 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z1, 180300Z2, 180900Z8 AND 181500Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (IMBUDO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN