UNCLAS //N03145// MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (SOUDELOR) WARNING NR 22// RMKS/ WDPN31 PGTW 170300 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 170000Z7 TO 200000Z2 JUN 03. A. TYPHOON (TY) 07W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LUZON, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 162330Z5 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS. LATEST ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL REVEALS A RAGGED, ELONGATED 17 NM DIAMETER EYE. B. TY 07W HAS BEGUN TO LINK UP WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND IS NOW MOVING MORE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. TY 07W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT CRESTS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID- LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO THE EAST AND THEN BEGINS TO RECURVE INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), COAMPS, JAPANESE GLOBAL MODEL (JGSM), JAPANESE TYPHOON MODEL (JTYM), GFDN, AFWA, NCEP GFS, AND AUSTRALIA'S TLAPS AND TCLAPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE DYNAMIC AIDS. C. TY 07W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TY 07W WILL THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS GAINS LATITUDE AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS. INFLUX OF DRY, CONTINENTAL AIR FROM THE TROUGH WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO OVERALL WEAKENING CONDITIONS PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS. D. LONG-RANGE FORECAST REASONING IS THAT TY 07W WILL COMPLETE LINKING UP WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND TRANSITION COMPLETELY TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN 60 TO 72 HOURS IN THE SEA OF JAPAN. E. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 162122Z4 QUIKSCAT PASS AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM TRANSITIONING TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. FORECAST TEAM: KENDALL/KLINZMANN/MENEBROKER/BIRD//