WDPN31 PGTW 160300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (SOUDELOR) WARNING NR 18// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 160000Z7 TO 210000Z3 JUN 03. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM EAST OF LUZON, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 152330Z4 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. A 152203Z3 SSM/I PASS REVEALS THE CONVECTION IS NOW WELL ORGANIZED AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). B. A LONGWAVE TROUGH OFF THE CHINA COAST IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEAST OF TS 07W. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ON A POLEWARD TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, TS 07W IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN RECURVATURE TOWARDS OKINAWA. THE SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), COAMPS, JAPANESE GLOBAL MODEL (JGSM), JAPANESE TYPHOON MODEL (JTYM), GFDN, AFWA, NCEP GFS, AND AUSTRALIA'S TLAPS AND TCLAPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE DYNAMIC AIDS. C. TS 07W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY UNDER MODERATE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WHILE TRACKING POLEWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND INTERACTS WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. D. LONG-RANGE FORECAST REASONING IS THAT TS 07W WILL INTERACT WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS UP THE RYUKYU CHAIN. TS 07W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT COMPLETES TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY TAU 96. E. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON QUIKSCAT AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM TRANSITIONING TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. FORECAST TEAM: KENDALL/KLINZMANN/MENEBROKER/BIRD// NNNN