UNCLAS //N03145// MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (SOUDELOR) WARNING NR 16// RMKS/ WDPN31 PGTW 151500 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 151200Z9 TO 201200Z5 JUN 03. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM NORTHEAST OF VIRAC, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 151130Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IN THE PAST 06 HOURS. B. A LONGWAVE TROUGH OFF THE CHINA COAST IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEAST OF TS 07W. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ON A POLEWARD TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, TS 07W IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN RECURVATURE TOWARDS OKINAWA. THE SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), COAMPS, JAPANESE GLOBAL MODEL (JGSM), JAPANESE TYPHOON MODEL (JTYM), GFDN, AFWA, NCEP GFS, AND AUSTRALIA'S TLAPS AND TCLAPS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. TRACK SPEED VARIATION BETWEEN THE MODELS CONTINUES TO BE THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE AIDS, WITH NOGAPS REMAINING SLOW AND GFS AND AVN HAVING THE MORE RAPID TRACK SPEEDS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE DYNAMIC AIDS. C. TS 07W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY UNDER MODERATE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WHILE TRACKING POLEWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. D. LONG-RANGE FORECAST REASONING IS THAT TS 07W WILL INTERACT WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE RYUKYU CHAIN. TS 07W IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY NORTH OF LUZON AS IT COMPLETES THE TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW BETWEEN TAU 96 AND 120. E. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON QUIKSCAT IMAGERY. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM TRANSITIONING TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/MOHAMMED/JACOBS/NUTONGLA// NNNN