WDPN31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W WARNING NR 14//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 150000Z6 TO 200000Z2 JUN 03.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 
NM NORTHEAST OF SAMAR, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 
142330Z3 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. RECENT 
MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED AT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP 
CONVECTION.
   B. A LONGWAVE TROUGH OFF THE CHINA COAST IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE 
WEAKENING THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEAST OF TS 07W. THE SYSTEM 
WILL CONTINUE ON A POLEWARD TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TS 07W 
IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN RECURVATURE TOWARDS 
OKINAWA AFTER 48 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH 
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. 
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), 
COAMPS, JAPANESE GLOBAL MODEL (JGSM), JAPANESE TYPHOON MODEL (JTYM), 
GFDN, AFWA, NCEP GFS, AND AUSTRALIA'S TLAPS AND TCLAPS ARE IN FAIR 
AGREEMENT WITH SPEED OF ADVANCE BEING THE SIGNIFICANT TRACK 
DIFFERENCE. UKMET EGRR IS THE SLOWEST OUTLIER AND NCEP GFS IS THE 
FASTEST TRACK. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE 
DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. TS 07W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY UNDER MODERATE UPPER 
LEVEL CONDITIONS WHILE TRACKING POLEWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE 
MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN NORTH OF LUZON AS 
IT INTERACTS WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH.
   D. LONG-RANGE FORECAST REASONING IS THAT TS 07W WILL INTERACT 
WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WEST OF THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE 
RYUKYU CHAIN. TS 07W IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY 
NORTH OF LUZON AS IT COMPLETES THE TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRATROPICAL 
LOW BY TAU 120.
   E. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON QUIKSCAT IMAGERY. FORECAST 
WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM 
TRANSITIONING TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST TEAM: KENDALL/KLINZMANN/MECHANIC/COOK/BIRD//

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