UNCLAS //N03145// MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (SOUDELOR) WARNING NR 26// RMKS/ WDPN31 PGTW 180300 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 180000Z9 TO 200000Z2 JUN 03. A. TYPHOON (TY) 07W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 172330Z6 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 100 KNOTS. A RECENT 180004Z3 SPECIAL MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS DEPICTS A SYMMETRICAL 17 NM EYE WITH DEEP CYCLING CONVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. B. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. TY 07W WILL LINK UP WITH ANOTHER TROUGH EXITING ASIA IN 12 TO 24 HOURS AND BEGIN ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), COAMPS, JAPANESE TYPHOON MODEL (JTYM), GFDN, AFWA, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. EGGR AND JAVI ARE WESTERN OUTLIERS WHILE JTYM IS AN EASTERN OUTLIER. ALL OTHER AIDS MATCH WELL WITH CONSENSUS TRACK WITH SOME SPEED DIFFERENCES; THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON THE EGGR AND JAVI SOLUTIONS. C. TY 07W HAS THE POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY OR REMAIN AT CURRENT STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ANALYSIS OF UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMMS DATA REVEALS THAT SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS NORTH OF OKINAWA. ANALYSIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELD DEPICTS DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS AND A WEAK TROUGH OR WEAK TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH FEATURE TO THE WEST OF TY 07W THAT IS INHIBITING THE ONSET OF VERTICAL SHEAR BY THE WESTERLIES. TY 07W WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY IN 18 TO 24 HOURS WHEN IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS IT CROSSES THE KUROSHIO CURRENT. D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON EVALUATION OF AN 180004Z3 SPECIAL MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM. FORECAST TEAM: GRUBER/RONSSE/SWOPE/BAK/EDBERG/ALLEN//