WDPN31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (LINFA) WARNING NR 
19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 291200Z4 MAY TO 011200Z4 JUN 03.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (LINFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM 
SOUTH OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 291130Z6 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 
KNOTS. LATEST ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES A SLIGHT INCREASE 
IN OVERALL SYSTEM ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM 
REMAINS ASYMMETRIC WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE 
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
   B. TS 05W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD AROUND THE WESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERD EAST OF THE SYSTEM. TS 05W 
WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO AN EXTRATROPICAL (XT) SYSTEM AFTER 24 
HOURS, INTERACTING WITH A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE 
YELLOW SEA, WITH THE SYSTEM XT AT 48 HOURS. GFDN, UKMET GLOBAL 
(EGRR), JAPANESE GLOBAL AND TYPHOON (JGSM AND JTYM), MM5, COAMPS, 
AND ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT. NOGAPS AND NCEP GFS ARE THE OUTLIERS 
THIS RUN, TRACKING THE SYSTEM NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HONSHU 
BEFORE TURNING RAPIDLY POLEWARD. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A 
CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON NOGAPS AND NCEP 
GFS.
   C. TS 05W WILL ENJOY ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF FURTHER 
INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF COLDER SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE KUROSHIO AND NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR HOLD INTENSITY IN CHECK. 
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII BASED ON ANALYSIS OF A 290936Z9 QUIKSCAT 
PASS. FORECAST WIND RADII BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE TO 
SMALL-SIZED ASYMMETRIC SYSTEM.
FORECAST TEAM: INGRAM/PIVIN/LAM/ANDERSON//

NNNN