WDPN31 PGTW 281500 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (LINFA) 
WARNING NR 15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 281200Z3 MAY TO 011200Z4 JUN 03.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W (LINFA), LOCATED EAST OF LUZON, 
APPROXIMATELY 155 NM NORTHEAST OF CASIGURAN, PHILIPPINES, HAS 
TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE LAST 06 HOURS. THE 
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 281130Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 
EXTRAPOLATION. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS CONSOLIDATION OF THE MID-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
18.6N5 123.6E2. THE CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE OVER THE LAST 6 
HOURS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.   
   B. TD 05W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE FORECAST 
PERIOD GUIDED BY A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN 
PHILIPPINE SEA. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, 
AND UKMET GLOBAL, JAPANESE GLOBAL AND TYPHOON (JGSM AND JTYM), AND 
GFDN, ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS 
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. TD 05W IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE AND THEN SLOWLY INTENSIFY IN 
THE WARM WATERS OF THE PHILIPPINE SEA UNDER LOW VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR ALOFT. 
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-
SIZED SYSTEM.
3. RELEASED BY CAPT LEEJOICE, USAF.
FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/KLINZMANN/MENEBROKER/BIRD//

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