UNCLAS //N03145//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (LINFA) WARNING NR 
09//
RMKS/
WDPN31 PGTW 270300 
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 270000Z9 TO 300000Z3 MAY 03.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (LINFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 25 NM 
WEST OF DAGUPAN, PHILIPPINES, HAS MOVED EASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AND IS MAKING LANDFALL AT THIS TIME ON LUZON. 
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 262330Z6 VISIBLE AND INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. TS 05W REMAINS WELL 
ORGANIZED BUT DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO HAVE HALTED WITH LANDFALL.  
   B. TS 05W CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD INTO LUZON UNDER THE 
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TS 05W IS 
FORECAST TO CROSS LUZON IN APPROXIMATELY 24 HOURS AND BEGIN A MORE 
POLEWARD TRACK IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE PHILIPPINE 
SEA. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, AND 
UKMET GLOBAL, JAPANESE GLOBAL AND TYPHOON (JGSM AND JTYM), GFDN, AND 
AFWA MM5 ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. GFS AND GFDN ARE 
FASTER THAN THE OTHER DYNAMIC AIDS, APPARENTLY A RESULT OF EXCESSIVE 
BAROCLINIC INTERACTION WITH A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. OUR 
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS, WITH LESS 
EMPHASIS ON GFDN AND GFS.
   C. INTERACTION OF TS 05W WITH LAND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE 
SYSTEM. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REINTENSIFY IN A 
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT.
   D. CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR 
AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/RONSSE/NUTONGLA//

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