WDPN31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W WARNING NR 
03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 251200Z0 TO 281200Z3 MAY 03.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS DRIFTED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING 
POSITION IS BASED ON 251130Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY. THE WARNING 
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 25 AND 
35 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TD 05W 
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ORGANIZE WHILE SEPARATING FROM A WESTERLY WIND 
BURST SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. 
   B. TD 05W HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR WESTERN LUZON, 
SLOWLY ORGANIZING IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN MID-LEVEL 
RIDGES CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN AND THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE 
RIDGE OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MIGRATE 
EASTWARD, ALLOWING 05W TO BEGIN MOVING EASTWARD AS WELL. THE TRACK 
TAKES THE SYSTEM OVER LUZON, RE-EMERGING IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE 
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, JGSM, AND EGRR ARE IN 
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, WITH NCEP (GFS) TAKING A FASTER AND 
MORE POLEWARD TRACK. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE 
DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPAHSIS ON GFS.
   C. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TD 05W EXISTS IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ALLOWING FOR INTENSIFICATION, HOWEVER 
INTENSITY WILL BE HAMPERED BY THE MOUNTAINOUS LUZON TERRAIN.
   D. CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR 
AN AVERAGE TO SMALL-SIZED SYSTEM.
FORECAST TEAM: INGRAM/PIVIN/LAM/ANDERSON//

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