UNCLAS //N03145// PASS TO OFFICE CODES: PSBR BCST//SID 80// DIRNSA FT GEORGE MEADE MD//DDI-LIZ/P313/Q332/WWEA// MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 04W WARNING NR 29// RMKS/ WDPN32 PGTW 260300 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 251200Z0 TO 261200Z1 MAY 03. A. TYPHOON (TY) 04W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 690 NM NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 252330Z5 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TY 04W HAS LOST MUCH OF ITS CONVECTION AS IT CONTINUES TO TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AND TRACKS INTO THE MID-LATITUDES. B. TY 04W HAS LINKED UP WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND CONTINUES TO TRACK RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST. TY 04W WILL COMPLETE TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN 12 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP (GFS), EGRR, JGSM, JTYM, COAMPS AND MM5 CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS. C. TY 04W'S APPROACH INTO THE MID-LATITUDES HAS RESULTED IN RAPID WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. D. CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND RADII BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM. FORECAST TEAM: GRUBER/HEATH/EDBERG/ALLEN//