WDPN32 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 04W WARNING NR 27//
RMKS/
1 FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 251200Z0 TO 261200Z1 MAY 03.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 04W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 660 NM 
NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 
251130Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. 
LATEST ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TY 04W IS WELL 
INVOLVED IN THE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM, BUT INTENSITY 
HAS HELD STEADY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
   B. TY 04W CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY 
OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. TY 04W HAS MADE THE LINK 
UP WITH A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND IS NOW ACCELERATING 
NORTHEASTWARD. THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE THE TRANSITION TO AN 
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IN 24 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS 
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP (GFS), EGRR, JGSM, JTYM, COAMPS AND 
MM5 CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON 
PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. TY 04W IS ACCELERATING POLEWARD AND EASTWARD INTO AN 
ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND COLDER SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRANSITIONS TO 
AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. 
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII BASED ON AN ANALYSIS OF LATEST ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. FORECAST WIND RADII BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY 
FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM.
FORECAST TEAM: INGRAM/PIVIN/LAM/ANDERSON//

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