WDPN31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W WARNING NR/ 
06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 190000Z0 TO 220000Z4 MAY 03.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM EAST OF 
MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 182330Z7 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON 
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE 
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY 
OVER THE LAST 06 HOURS ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED AT THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION.
   B. TS 03W IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD THROUGH 36 HOURS TOWARDS 
A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM THAT 
IS ENHANCED BY A MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO  
TRANSITION TO A NORTHWESTERLY TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE PASSING SHORTWAVE. 
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET OFFICE GLOBAL 
(EGRR), GFDN, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. 
OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE 
DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN 
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN A MODERATE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-
SIZED SYSTEM.
3. RELEASED BY CAPT KENDALL, USAF.
FORECAST TEAM: KENDALL/KLINZMANN/MENEBROKER/BIRD//

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