UNCLAS //N03145// MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W WARNING NR/ 04// RMKS/ WDPN31 PGTW 181500 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 181200Z2 TO 211200Z6 MAY 03. A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM EAST OF MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES, HAS DRIFTED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 181130Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS, ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. DEEP CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY DECREASED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS AND SOME VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EVIDENT OVER THE SYSTEM. B. TD 03W IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE ENHANCED BY A MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET OFFICE GLOBAL (EGRR), GFDN, THE JAPANESE GLOBAL MODEL (JGSM) AND NCEP GFS, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO IN THE EARLY PERIOD. AFTER 24 HOURS EGRR DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM WHILE THE REMAINING MODELS MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM, ALBEIT WEAK, THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THIS CLUSTER IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO 72 HOURS WITH A GENERALLY POLEWARD FLOW, CHANGING TO A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON EGRR. C. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY INITIALLY DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND REMAIN SLOWER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD IN MODERATE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS. D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE- SIZED SYSTEM. 3. RELEASED BY LT BRYANT, USN. FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/JACOBS/NUTONGLA// NNNN