WDPN31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W WARNING NR/ 
02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 180000Z9 TO 210000Z3 MAY 03.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM EAST 
OF MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 6 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 172330Z6 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON 
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE 
SATELLITE AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE WITH SOME INHIBITING 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
   B. TD 03W IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST 
PERIOD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE 
SYSTEM CREATED BY A MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS 
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET OFFICE GLOBAL (EGRR), AND NCEP GFS, ARE 
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON 
PERSISTENCE, THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS, AND THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC 
AIDS.
   C. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY INITIALLY DUE TO 
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY BELOW A 
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE DUE TO LAND EFFECTS FROM THE PHILIPPINES.
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-
SIZED SYSTEM.
3. RELEASED BY CAPT KENDALL, USAF.
FORECAST TEAM: KENDALL/KLINZMANN/MENEBROKER/BIRD//

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