WDPN31 PGTW 250300 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (KUJIRA) 
WARNING NR 65//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 250000Z7 TO 270000Z9 APR 2003.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (KUJIRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEAST AT 28 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 242330Z4 VISIBLE 
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30, 35 AND 45 KNOTS, COMBINED WITH 
SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS. TS 02W CONTINUES TRANSITION INTO AN 
EXTRATROPICAL LOW. 
   B. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND DEPICT THE 
APPROACHING MID-LAT TROUGH WELL AT THIS TIME. THE STEERING RIDGE 
EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE APPROACHING TROUGH ARE PROVIDING STRONG 
POLEWARD STEERING FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS. THE APPROACHING 
MID-LAT TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PICK-UP TS 02W APPROXIMATELY IN THE 
NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL 
TRANSITION. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE 
DYNAMIC AIDS, NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, AFWA MM5, JGSM, JTYM, AND 
EGRR.
   C. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE GOOD OUTFLOW 
CONDITIONS FOR TS 02W. TS 02W IS NOT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN 
SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE RE-INTENSIFYING AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW THROUGH 
THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
   D. CURRENT AND FORECAST INTENSITY DO NOT MEET WIND RADII 
CRITERIA.
3. RELEASED BY: CAPT KENDALL, USAF.
FORECAST TEAM: KENDALL/RONSSE/MENEBROKER//

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