WDPN31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (KUJIRA) WARNING NR 
55//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 221200Z7 TO 251200Z0 APR 2003.
   A. TROPICAL STORM 02W (KUJIRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 221130Z9 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED 
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. DEEP 
CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN ON THE DECLINE, AND AT THE TIME OF 
OBSERVATION THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WAS PARTIALLY 
EXPOSED.  
   B. TS 02W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A NORTHWARD TRACK INTO A 
RIDGE WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM 
AND THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. AFTER 36 HOURS, THE SYSTEM 
WILL BECOME INFLUENCED BY MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW, RESULTING IN A 
RAPID RECURVATURE AND ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST. THE AVAILABLE 
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, COAMPS, JAPANESE GLOBAL (JGSM), 
UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN REASONABLE 
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. GFDN CONTINUES 02W ON A NORTHERLY 
TRACK INTO THE KOREAN PENINSULA, AND IS THE LONE STRAIGHT NORTH 
TRACKING BIAS THIS MODEL RUN. THIS FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON A 
CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, WITH LESS EMPAHSIS ON GFDN.
   C. TS 02W HAS CYCLED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, 
MAINTAINING 55 KNOT INTENSITY, BUT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN 
UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND, MORE IMPORTANTLY, 
AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
   D. CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND RADII BASED ON A DETAILED ANALYSIS 
OF ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY, A 22119Z5 SSM/I PASS, AND CLIMATOLOGY 
FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM UNDERGOING OVER-WATER DISSIPATION.
3. RELEASED BY LT INGRAM, USN.
FORECAST TEAM: INGRAM/PIVIN/LAM/STATEN/ANDERSON//

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