UNCLAS//N03144//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (KUJIRA) WARNING NR 51//
RMKS/
WDPN31 PGTW 211500
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 211200Z6 TO 241200Z9 APR 2003.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 02W (KUJIRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 
211130Z8 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 
KNOTS. SYSTEM NO LONGER HAS AN EYE AND DEEP CONVECTION ON THE 
WESTERN QUADRANTS HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.	 
   B. TY 02W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO 
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE 
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN 
RECURVATURE TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST AS IT INTERACTS 
WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, 
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, COAMPS, THE JAPANESE GLOBAL (JGSM) AND 
TYPHOON (JTYM) MODELS, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AFWA MM5, AND NCEP 
AVIATION (AVN) SHOW FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO UNTIL THE MID-
PERIOD. AFTERWARDS, MODELS DIVERGE INTO TWO CLUSTERS. COAMPS, EGRR, 
AVN AND AFWA MM5 TAKE THE SYSTEM FURTHER WEST AND ARE LESS 
AGGRESSIVE IN THEIR INTERACTION WITH THE WESTERLIES. JTYM, JGSM, 
GFDN AND NGPS TRACK MORE POLEWARD. OUR FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON A 
BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, WITH A GREATER EMPHASIS ON 
THE POLEWARD GROUPING IN THE LATE PERIOD.
   C. TY 02W HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AND IS FORECAST TO 
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL 
WESTERLIES OCCURS. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE MORE RAPID WEAKENING 
AFTER THE EARLY PERIOD.
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS AND 
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON 
CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM AND MODEL FIELD ANALYSIS.
3. RELEASED BY LT BRYANT, USN.
FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/JACOBS/KLINZMANN/NUTONGLA//

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