UNCLAS//N03144//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (KUJIRA) WARNING NR 47//
RMKS/
WDPN31 PGTW 201500
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 201200Z5 TO 231200Z8 APR 2003.
   A. TYPHOON 02W (KUJIRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 
201130Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS. TY 
02W CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, 
MAINTAINING A SYMMETRICAL EYE OF 15 NM DIAMETER, DUE TO IMPROVED 
OUTFLOW ALOFT. 	 
   B. TY 02W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER 
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEAST OF 
THE SYSTEM. IN THE MID-PERIOD, THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT 
AND TURN MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A 
LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH, WHICH IS FORECAST TO BUILD AS 
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE SYSTEM TRANSLATES EASTWARD. THE 
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, COAMPS, THE 
JAPANESE GLOBAL (JGSM) AND TYPHOON (JTYM) MODELS, UKMET GLOBAL 
(EGRR), AFWA MM5, AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 
THIS SCENARIO WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN. GFDN STILL HAS A 
SIGNIFICANT POLEWARD BIAS, MAINTAINING A STRONGER SYSTEM. JGSM AND 
AVN HAVE A SLIGHT EQUATORWARD BIAS LATE IN THE PERIOD AS WELL, DUE 
TO A WEAKER SYSTEM. OUR FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 
DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. TY 02W IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING IMPROVED OUTFLOW CONDITIONS 
AND HAS INTENSIFIED. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN STRENGTH IN 
THE SHORT TERM, THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS LESS 
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW CONDITIONS AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. 
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED 
SYSTEM AND MODEL FIELD ANALYSIS.
3. RELEASED BY LT BRYANT, USN.
FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/JACOBS/KLINZMANN/NUTONGLA//

NNNN