UNCLAS//N03144//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (KUJIRA) WARNING NR 39//
RMKS/
WDPN31 PGTW 181500
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 181200Z2 TO 211200Z6 APR 2003.
   A. TYPHOON 02W (KUJIRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 505 NM EAST OF 
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 181130Z4 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED 
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS. A 
180929Z9 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS INDICATES THE 
SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO GO THROUGH A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE. 
   B. TY 02W IS NOW TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS 
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER TAIWAN. A SERIES OF 
SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THIS WEAKNESS AND INHIBIT 
BUILDING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA ALLOWING 
TY 02W TO CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK UNTIL LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
AT THIS TIME, A RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA 
CAUSING TY 02W TO RESUME A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THE AVAILABLE 
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, COAMPS, THE JAPANESE 
GLOBAL (JGSM) AND TYPHOON (JTYM) MODELS, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AFWA 
MM5, AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE ALL IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS 
SCENARIO. GFDN REMAINS THE OUTLIER IN THE MODEL SUITE WITH A 
SIGNIFICANT POLEWARD BIAS. THE FORECAST REMAINS BASED ON PERSISTENCE 
AND A BLEND OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON GFDN.
   C. TY 02W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS 
AND THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL 
WINDSHEAR ON ITS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. TY 02W WILL WEAKEN AT A 
GREATER RATE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WHEN IT ENCOUNTERS HIGHER 
VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII IS BASED ON AN ANALYSIS OF A 180858Z0 
QUICKSCAT AND A 180929Z9 SSM/I PASS. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED 
ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM.
3. RELEASED BY CAPT LEEJOICE, USAF.
FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/GRUBER/HEATH/EDBERG//