WDPN31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (KUJIRA) WARNING NR/ 
37//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 180000Z9 TO 210000Z3 APR 2003.
   A. TYPHOON 02W (KUJIRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM EAST OF 
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 172330Z6 MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS. LATEST 
MULTISPECTRAL, ENHANCED INFRARED AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT 
WHILE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT CONTINUES INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF 
TY 02W, THE SYSTEM HAS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED EYE 
FEATURE.
   B. FOR THE SHORT TERM, TY 02W REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POLEWARD, WHICH HAS STRENGTHENED SOMEWHAT OVER THE 
PAST 24 HOURS, FORCING TY 02W ON AN EQUATORWARD TRACK. AFTER 24 
HOURS, TY 02W STEERING IS INFLUENCED BY TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES, AN 
EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, AND A 
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTHEAST OF LUZON. TOWARD THE END 
OF THE FORECAST, THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WILL BUILD WITH 
PASSAGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, FORCING 02W WESTWARD ONCE AGAIN.  
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, COAMPS, THE 
JAPANESE GLOBAL (JGSM) AND TYPHOON (JTYM) MODELS, UKMET GLOBAL 
(EGRR), AFWA MM5, AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
WITH THIS SCENARIO, WITH NOGAPS ONCE AGAIN THE OUTLIER IN THE MODEL 
RUNS WITH A CONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK. THE FORECAST REMAINS BASED ON 
PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS MINUS NOGAPS.
   C. TY 02W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY PRIOR TO MAKING A 
POLEWARD TURN AFTER 24 HOURS, THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN THEREAFTER OVER 
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURS, THE EFFECTS OF THE SOUTHEAST 
QUADRANT OF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, AND TO A LESSER 
EXTENT SOME VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ABOVE LATITUDE 17 NORTH. 
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII BASED ON AN ANALYSIS OF LATEST 
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 172323Z8 SSM/I PASS. FORECAST WIND RADII 
ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM.
3. RELEASED BY LT INGRAM, USN.
FORECAST TEAM: INGRAM/LAM/STATEN/ANDERSON//

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