UNCLAS//N03144//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (KUJIRA) WARNING NR/ 
35//
RMKS/
WDPN31 PGTW 171500
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 171200Z1 TO 201200Z5 APR 2003.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 02W (KUJIRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 645 NM EAST 
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 171130Z3 ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON 
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90, 102 AND 115 KNOTS. 
LATEST ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 171047Z0 SPECIAL SENSOR 
MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS INDICATES THE REEMERGENCE OF A 12 NM 
EYE. 
   B. TY 02W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING 
INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED 
OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN EASTERN CHINA 
WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE IN THE NEXT 6-18 HOURS AND ALLOW TY 02W TO 
TRACK MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATER ON IN 
THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL CREATE A SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE 
NEAR TAIWAN AFTER 48 HOURS ALLOWING TY 02W TO TURN MORE POLEWARD. 
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, COAMPS, THE 
JAPANESE GLOBAL (JGSM) AND TYPHOON (JTYM) MODELS, UKMET GLOBAL 
(EGRR), AFWA MM5, AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
WITH THIS SCENARIO. NOGAPS REMAINS THE SOLE OUTLIER IN THE MODEL 
SUITE WITH A SIGNIFICANT EQUATORWARD BIAS. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON 
PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON 
NOGAPS.
   C. TY 02W IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS 
DUE TO LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO 
WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY AFTER 48 HOURS IN AN ATMOSPHERE OF INCREASING 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII IS BASED ON AN ANALYSIS OF A 170924Z3 
QUICKSCAT PASS AND A 171047Z0 SSM/I PASS. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE 
BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM.
3. RELEASED BY CAPT LEEJOICE, USAF.
FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/GRUBER/HEATH/EDBERG//