WDPN31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (KUJIRA) WARNING NR/ 
33//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 170000Z8 TO 200000Z2 APR 2003.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 02W (KUJIRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 730 NM EAST 
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 162330Z5 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON 
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 115 KNOTS. LATEST 
MICROWAVE, ENHANCED INFRARED, AND MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATE THE 
EYE  FEATURE IS NOW GONE. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ENTRAIN FROM THE 
NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHWEST SECTOR OF TY 02W, AS THE SYSTEM 
INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE.  
   B. TY 02W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER 36 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS 
EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD INTO A WEAKNESS DEVELOPING IN THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DUE TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH NORTHWEST. THE 
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF GFDN, COAMPS, THE JAPANESE 
GLOBAL (JGSM) AND TYPHOON (JTYM) MODELS, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AFWA 
MM5, AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS 
SCENARIO. NOGAPS, THE LONE OUTLIER IN THE CURRENT AIDS PACKAGE, 
CONTINUES TRACKING 02W WESTWARD OVER THE PHILIPPINES. THIS FORECAST 
IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS, MINUS 
NOGAPS. 
   C. TY 02W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 36 
HOURS, AS OUTFLOW REMAINS FAVORABLE UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. 
AFTERWARD, AS TY 02W TRACKS POLEWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO 
WEAKEN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII IS BASED ON AN ANALYSIS OF RECENT QUIKSCAT 
PASSES AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON 
CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM.
3. RELEASED BY LT INGRAM, USN.
FORECAST TEAM: INGRAM/LAM/STATEN/ANDERSON//

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