UNCLAS//N03144//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (KUJIRA) WARNING NR/ 
31//
RMKS/
WDPN31 PGTW 161500
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 161200Z0 TO 191200Z3 APR 2003.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 02W (KUJIRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM 
NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 161130Z2 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115, 127 AND 140 
KNOTS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 20 NM CLOUD-
FILLED EYE. RECENT MICROWAVE AND ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT SOME DRY AIR BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE 
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH, AS WELL AS A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM 
IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.   
   B. TY 02W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID 
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM 
IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD INTO A WEAKNESS DEVELOPING IN THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH DUE TO A PASSING TROUGH. THE 
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, COAMPS, THE 
JAPANESE GLOBAL (JGSM) AND TYPHOON (JTYM) MODELS, UKMET GLOBAL 
(EGRR), AFWA MM5, AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND 
OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS. 
   C. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO VERY SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENTRAINS 
LIMITED DRY AIR IN THE EARLY PERIOD. IN THE LATE PERIOD, TY 02W WILL 
BEGIN TO WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS ABOVE THE RIDGE AXIS 
ENCOUNTERING GREATER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE 
IMAGERY. FORECAST WIND RADII REMAIN BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN 
AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM.
3. RELEASED BY LT BRYANT, USN.
FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/JACOBS/KLINZMANN/NUTONGLA//

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