UNCLAS//N03144// MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (KUJIRA) WARNING NR 27// RMKS/ WDPN31 PGTW 151500 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 151200Z9 TO 181200Z2 APR 2003. A. TYPHOON (TY) 02W (KUJIRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM NORTH- NORTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 151130Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. TY 02W MAINTAINS A SYMMETRIC EYE WITH A DIAMETER OF 20 NM. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SOME DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH. B. CURRENTLY, A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS EAST OF LUZON, PHILIPPINES HAS TRANSITIONED TY 02W TO A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THIS TRACK IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THIS WEAKNESS PROPAGATES EASTWARD. AFTERWARDS, A RIDGING FEATURE CURRENTLY BUILDING OVER VIETNAM WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD AND CAUSE TY 02W TO RESUME A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, COAMPS, JAPANESE GLOBAL (JGSM) AND TYPHOON (JTYM), UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AFWA MM5, AND THE NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO UNTIL 48 HOURS. IN THE LATE PERIOD, THE MODELS DIVERGE WITH GFDN AND AVN BEGINNING TO TAKE A MORE POLEWARD TRACK INTO THE WEAKNESS, WHILE ALL OTHER MODELS INDICATE TY 02W WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING RIDGE AND TRANSITION BACK TO A WESTWARD TRACK. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON GFDN AND AVN IN THE LATE PERIOD. C. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT TRACKS NEAR THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE UNTIL THE MID PERIOD. AFTERWARDS, THE INTENSITY WILL LEVEL OFF AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE RIDGE. D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON RECENT QUIKSCAT AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. FORECAST WIND RADII REMAIN BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM. 3. RELEASED BY LT BRYANT, USN. FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/JACOBS/KLINZMANN/NUTONGLA// NNNN