WTPN31 PGTW 101500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 02W WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101200Z4 --- NEAR 8.1N9 159.0E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 8.1N9 159.0E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z2 --- 9.2N1 157.7E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z5 --- 10.1N2 156.3E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z3 --- 10.6N7 154.8E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z6 --- 10.9N0 153.4E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z7 --- 11.0N2 150.1E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 101500Z7 POSITION NEAR 8.4N2 158.7E1. TROPICAL STORM 02W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 83 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 101130Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTING 40 KNOTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE LLCC REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z4 IS 15 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z4, 110300Z5, 110900Z1 AND 111500Z8. RELEASED BY MAJ MAZANY, USAF.// NNNN -------------------------------------------------------------- WDPN31 PGTW 101500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W WARNING NR/ 07// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 101200Z4 TO 131200Z7 APR 03. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 83 NM NORTH- NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 101130Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTING 40 KNOTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL THAT THE LLCC REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. B. TS 02W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD IN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST OF JAPAN IS FORECAST TO ENHANCE THE WEAKNESS. AFTER THE 24 HOUR PERIOD, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK IN AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PASSES NORTHEASTWARD. TS 02W WILL THEN COME UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THIS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, TRANSITIONING TO A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), JAPANESE GLOBAL (JGSM), AND THE NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. C. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE AT A SLIGHTLY LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDER LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE. D. INITIAL WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM. 3. RELEASED BY MAJ MAZANY, USAF. FORECAST TEAM: MAZANY/RONSSE/MENEBROKER// NNNN