MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 01W WARNING NR 006 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 170000Z8 --- NEAR 10.0N1 152.9E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 18 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 10.0N1 152.9E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z1 --- 11.3N5 150.1E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z9 --- 12.5N8 148.1E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z2 --- 13.7N1 146.7E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z0 --- 14.8N3 146.1E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z2 --- 17.2N0 148.6E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 170300Z1 POSITION NEAR 10.3N4 152.2E0. TROPICAL STORM 01W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 162330Z5 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANIMATED VISIBLE, MULTISPECTRAL AND RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION, HOWEVER THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z8 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z7, 171500Z4, 172100Z1 AND 180300Z2.// ** WTPQ31 PGUM 170301 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM 01W ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 2 PM GUAM LST FRI JAN 17 2003 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN. THIS MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY TONIGHT IF THE STORM FOLLOWS ITS FORECAST TRACK. AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM (TS) 01W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 152.2 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 550 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND 550 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN. TD 01W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 21 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS LOCATED NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER. A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OF THE STORM IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...LATITUDE 10.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 152.2 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 21 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH. FOR MORE INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W LOCAL STATEMENTS...WTPQ81 PGUM. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 5 PM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 8 PM. $$ ZIOBRO ** WTPQ31 PGUM 170314 CCA *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM 01W ADVISORY NUMBER 6...CORRECTION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 2 PM GUAM LST FRI JAN 17 2003 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN. THIS MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY TONIGHT IF THE STORM FOLLOWS ITS FORECAST TRACK. AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM (TS) 01W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 152.2 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 550 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND 550 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN. TS 01W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 21 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS LOCATED NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER. A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OF THE STORM IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...LATITUDE 10.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 152.2 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 21 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH. FOR MORE INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 01W LOCAL STATEMENTS...WTPQ81 PGUM. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 5 PM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 8 PM. $$ ZIOBRO ** WTPQ81 PGUM 170504 *** HLSPQ1 GUZ001>004-171100- TROPICAL STORM 01W LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 3 PM GUAM LST FRI JAN 17 2003 ...TROPICAL STORM 01W MOVING TOWARDS THE MARIANA ISLANDS... ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN. THIS MEANS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH TO 73 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY TONIGHT IF THE STORM FOLLOWS ITS FORECAST TRACK. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM (TS) 01W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 152.2 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 550 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND 550 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS. ...PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... GUAM REMAINS IN CONDITION OF READINESS 3. ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN REMAIN IN CONDITION 4. BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER. SECURE YOUR PROPERTY AND VEHICLES AGAINST THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...INCLUDING PICKING UP ANY LOOSE OBJECTS OR DEBRIS LEFT OVER FROM SUPER TYPHOON PONGSONA LAST MONTH. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS ISSUED BY GUAM CIVIL DEFENSE AND THE CNMI EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE. ...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION... HAZARDOUS SURF OF 11 TO 13 FT IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INCREASING TO 12 TO 14 FT SUNDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED. ...WIND INFORMATION... DAMAGING WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ...OTHER STORM EFFECTS... HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 PM GUAM LST...OR SOONER IF NEEDED. $$ ZIOBRO