UNCLAS//N03144//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 31W (PONGSONA) WARNING NR 34//
RMKS/
WDPN31 PGTW 110300
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 110000Z2 TO 121200Z6 DEC 02.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 31W (PONGSONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 750 NM 
NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 31 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 
102330Z9 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS WITH AN  
ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD TO REFLECT A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS AND SYNOPTIC 
DATA. A 101958Z4 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS 
REVEALS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS PARTIALLY 
EXPOSED WITH DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE EAST. ANIMATED WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT HAS INCREASED FROM THE 
NORTH AND WEST AND VISIBLE SATELLITE REVEALS A LARGE FIELD OF COLD 
AIR STRATOCUMULUS TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. TRANSITION TO AN 
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IS VERY NEAR COMPLETION.
   B. TY 31W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT INTERACTS 
WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AS AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THE 
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, JAPAN GLOBAL 
(JGSM) AND TYPHOON (JTYM), AND UKMET (EGRR) DO NOT MAINTAIN THE 
SYSTEM BEYOND 24 TO 36 HOURS AND CARRY THE SYSTEM AS AN 
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BEYOND INITIALIZATION. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON 
A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. 
   C. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS 
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AS AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM.  
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS, 
HOWEVER TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BE COMPLETE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS. WIND RADII ARE NOT FORECASTED FOR 
EXTRATROPICAL POSITIONS.
FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/INGRAM/JACOBS/JUAREZ/COOK//

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