UNCLAS//N03144// MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 30W (HAISHEN) WARNING NR 12// RMKS/ WDPN31 PGTW 230300 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 230000Z5 TO 260000Z8 NOV 02. A. TYPHOON (TY) 30W (HAISHEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 535 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 222330Z2 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS. A 222048Z8 TRMM PASS DEPICTS A BANDING EYE FEATURE. B. TY 30W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD TOWARD JAPAN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH TY 30W BY 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO BE COMPLETE BY 72 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, JAPANESE GLOBAL (JGSM) AND TYPHOON (JTYM) MODELS, UKMET (EGRR), NCEP AVIATION (AVN), GFDN, AFWA MM5, AND COAMPS, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. C. TY 30W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES THE RIDGE AXIS. TY 30W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AND IS INFLUENCED BY UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. D. CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR A LARGE-SIZED SYSTEM. 3. FORECAST TEAM: WINGEART/LAM/KUMAGA// NNNN