UNCLAS//N03144//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 30W (HAISHEN) 
WARNING NR 10//
RMKS/
WDPN31 PGTW 221500
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 221200Z7 TO 251200Z0 NOV 02.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 30W (HAISHEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 620 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS 
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 221130Z9 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 221240Z1 MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS. THE 
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
OF 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES 
THAT A 60 NM DIA. CDO HAS DEVELOPED IN THE PAST SIX HOURS.
   B. TY 30W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE 
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR NEXT 12 TO 
18 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, AN APPROACHING MID-LAT TROUGH IS FORECAST TO 
GENERATE POLEWARD STEERING FLOW AND A RIDGE WEAKNESS NORTH OF TY 
30W. THE MID-LAT TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH TY 30W BY THE 
MID-PERIOD AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE 
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF 
NOGAPS, JAPANESE GLOBAL (JGSM) AND TYPHOON (JTYM) MODELS, UKMET 
(EGRR), NCEP AVIATION (AVN), GFDN, AFWA MM5, AND COAMPS, ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT. THE JTYM MODEL MORE AGGRESSIVELY DEPICTS MID-LATITUDE 
INTERACTION. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL CONSENSUS APPEARS REASONABLE. OUR 
FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE 
DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. TY 30W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY IN A MANNER INDICATED BY 
CLIMATOLOGY AS IT APPROACHES THE RECURVATURE POINT. INTENSIFICATION 
IS FORECAST TO BE ARRESTED BY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES IN THE MID-PERIOD. WEAKENING ASSOCIATED 
WITH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED IN THE LATE PERIOD.
   D. CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT 
PASS AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN LARGE-SIZED SYSTEM, RESPECTIVELY.
3. FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/DANIEL/RONSSE/SCHAEFFER/EDBERG//

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