WDPN31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 29W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR 
12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 291200Z4 TO 310000Z4 OCT 02.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 29W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 710 
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MIDWAY ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD 
AT 32 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED 
ON 291130Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING 
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 
KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, SEVERAL RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES 
AND A QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATE THE SYSTEM HAS COMPLETED EXTRATROPICAL 
TRANSITION.
   B. TS 29W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY TRACK TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THE STEERING FLOW 
ASSOCIATED WITH TS 29W MERGING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW IS 
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE FOR CONTINUED HIGH TRACK SPEEDS. THE AVAILABLE 
DYNAMIC AIDS, INCLUDING NOGAPS, GFDN, THE JAPANESE GLOBAL AND 
TYPHOON MODELS, AND AVN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST.
   C. TS 29W HAS MERGED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW ON THE NORTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND IS TRACKING OVER COOLER SEA TEMPS. 
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION HAS BEEN COMPLETED AND THE SYSTEM IS 
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW THROUGHOUT THE 
FORECAST PERIOD.
   D. WIND RADII ARE NOT FORECAST FOR EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEMS.
3. FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/JACOBS/SHERRY/NUTONGLA/JUAREZ//

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