WDPN31 PGTW 280300
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 280000Z0 TO 310000Z4 OCT 02.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 29W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 545 NM 
NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 272330Z7 VISIBLE 
AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. 
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IN THE 
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO 
INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
   B. TS 29W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 6 TO 12 
HOURS AND THEN TURN NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A MIDLATITUDE SYSTEM EAST OF JAPAN IS EXPECTED TO 
PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND INTERACT WITH THE SYSTEM AFTER 24 HOURS, 
PROVIDING INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, 
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, COAMPS, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AND THE 
JAPANESE GLOBAL (JGSM) AND TYPHOON (JTYM) MODELS, ARE IN FAIR 
AGREEMENT. JGSM AND EGRR KEEP THE SYSTEM WEAK THROUGH THE FORECAST 
PERIOD, DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM AFTER 48 HOURS. JTYM AND COAMPS 
INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL 
SYSTEM BY 36 TO 48 HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATE. OUR FORECAST IS BASED 
ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. TS 29W IS NORTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, BUT REMAINS IN 
A REGION OF GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH TO THE WEST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE 
FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRACKS INTO AN UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL 
ENVIRONMENT AND INTERACTS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE 
APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SYSTEM. TS 29W IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 
48 HOURS. 
   D. INITIAL WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 271921Z2 QUIKSCAT PASS. 
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED 
SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST TEAM: WINGEART/LAM/KUMAGA/STATEN//
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