WDPN31 PGTW 270300 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 270000Z9 TO 300000Z3 OCT 02. A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 29W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM WEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 262330Z6 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. B. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY ABOVE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, BUT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST- NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. TD 29W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH THROUGH 12 TO 24 HOURS AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS AND THE JAPANESE GLOBAL (JGSM) MODEL, AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. BOTH NOGAPS AND JGSM KEEP THE SYSTEM WEAK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM AFTER 72 HOURS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS AND THE MEDIUM AND SHALLOW BETA ADVECTION MODELS. C. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WHILE OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE- SIZED SYSTEM. 3. FORECAST TEAM: WINGEART/LAM/KUMAGA/STATEN// NNNN