WDPN32 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W WARNING NR 
05//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 190000Z0 TO 200000Z2 OCT 02.
    A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 28W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 182330Z7 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON 
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS. SPECIAL 
SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASSES AT 182030Z4 AND 182212Z6 AND 
A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS REVEAL DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION 
REMAINING, HOWEVER, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS 
DISSIPATED. WHAT REMAINS OF THE LLCC HAS OPENED UP, WITH THAT WAVE 
PROPAGATING TO THE NORTH. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO 
INDICATES DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION AND NO APPARENT LLCC.
    B. TD 28W HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE AVAILABLE MODELS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, 
AND UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. 
OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS AND 
THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS.
    C. TD 28W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE UNDER UNFAVORABLE 
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS.
    D. SYSTEM DOES NOT MEET WIND RADII CRITERIA.
3. FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/JACOBS/SHERRY/JUAREZ//

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