WDPN32 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W WARNING NR 
03//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 181200Z2 TO 211200Z6 OCT 02.
    A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 28W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 181130Z4 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED 
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN 180937Z8 SSM/I PASS 
SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED FURTHER TO THE EAST OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
    B. TD 28W IS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS 
EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SECOND LOW-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BUILD 
AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD BY 72 HOURS, KEEPING TD 28W ON A WESTWARD 
TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE MODELS CONSISTING 
OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AND UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH 
THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE 
DYNAMIC AIDS AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS.
    C. TD 28W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A SLIGHTLY LESS THAN 
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRACKS IN A 
MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
    D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-
SIZED SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST TEAM: WINGEART/LAM/KUMAGA/STATEN//
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