WDPN31 PGTW 190300 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W WARNING NR 
09//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 190000Z0 TO 200000Z2 OCT 02.
    A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 27W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM 
EAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 182330Z7 MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. A RECENT QUIKSCAT 
PASS AND ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS WEAKENED. A 182212Z6 SPECIAL 
SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS REVEALS THAT THERE IS VERY 
LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC AND DRY 
AIR IS BEGINNING TO BE ENTRAINED FROM THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM.
    B. TD 27W REMAINS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A WEAK LOW-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SUBTROPICAL 
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE 
PERIOD. TD 27W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT 
DISSIPATES. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, 
AFWA MM5, COAMPS, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AND UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), ARE 
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, THOUGH MODELS VARY IN THE TIME 
REQUIRED FOR DISSIPATION. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF 
ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
    C. TD 27W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE, ENTRAINING DRY 
AIR FROM THE WEST, IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. 
    D. SYSTEM DOES NOT MEET WIND RADII CRITERIA. 
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR COR: CORRECTED CHECKSUM IN PARA 2.
4. FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/JACOBS/SHERRY/JUAREZ//

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