WDPN31 PGTW 101500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 26W (BAVI)/ WARNING NR 06// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 101200Z4 TO 131200Z7 OCT 02. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 26W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 101130Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE AND 101138Z4 MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC DATA. MICROWAVE IMAGERY AT 100949Z3, 100952Z7 AND 101138Z4 DEPICT A DEVELOPING BANDING FEATURE TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A STRONGER BANDING FEATURE REMAINING IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE LLCC REMAINS BROAD AND SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN ENHANCED INFRARED, HOWEVER CONSOLIDATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TOWARDS THE CENTER HAS CONTINUED TO PROGRESS OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. B. A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TS 26W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO AN EASTWARD MOVING BAROCLINIC SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING OFF OF JAPAN'S EASTERN COAST. TS 26W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE EARLY PERIOD TOWARDS THE RETREATING WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. AFTERWARDS, TS 26W WILL TRACK ALONG THE RIDGE IN A NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE RIDGE AXIS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE MODELS INCLUDING NOGAPS, UKMET SPECTRAL (EGRR), COAMPS, THE JMA GLOBAL (JGSM) AND TYPHOON (JTYM) MODELS, AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN). C. TS 26W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST EAST OF IWO JIMA MAY PROVIDE FURTHER ENHANCEMENT. D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR A LARGE SIZE SYSTEM. 3. FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/JACOBS/SHERRY/JUAREZ/GAMBLE// NNNN