WDPN32 PGTW 011500 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 011200Z4 TO 041200Z7 OCT 02. A. TYPHOON (TY) 25W (HIGOS), LOCATED OVERLAND NEAR TOKYO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 33 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 011130Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. A 010830Z2 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS AND ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW CONTINUED EROSION OF THE CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. SYNOPTIC AND RADAR DATA INDICATE LANDFALL OVER JAPAN OCCURRED NEAR YOKOSUKA, JAPAN AT APPROXIMATELY 011100Z3 WITH MAXIMUM WINDS REPORTED OF 51 KNOTS GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS AT YOKOSUKA. B. TY 25W HAS CONTINUED TO ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. STEERING WILL CONTINUE TO BE PROVIDED BY THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM COMBINED WITH THE MID- LEVEL HIGH HEIGHT CENTER REMAINING STATIONARY TO THE EAST. THE RESULTING POLEWARD STEERING FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES WILL RESULT IN A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER, TY 25W SHOULD TURN EASTWARD AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 24 HOURS AS CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE TROUGH. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF AFWA MM5, COAMPS, NOGAPS, UKMET GLOBAL, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), GFDN AND THE JAPANESE GLOBAL (JGSM) AND TYPHOON (JTYM) MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO FOR THE EARLY PERIOD. AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS COMPLETED THE AIDS VARY IN THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. C. TY 25W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH LAND, ENTRAIN COOL AIR, TRAVELS OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR A SYSTEM UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. EXTRATROPICAL POSITIONS DO NOT REQUIRE WIND RADII. FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/JACOBS/SHERRY/NUTONGLA// NNNN