WDPN31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 24W WARNING NR 15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 270000Z9 SEP 02 TO 280000Z0 SEP 02.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 24W (MEKKHALA), LOCATED OVER THE GULF 
OF TONKIN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 262330Z6 MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED 
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. EARLY 
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH.  
   B. THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF TD 24W WILL CONTINUE
STEERING THE SYSTEM POLEWARD THOUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, 
THE RIDGE WILL PERSIST, BUT AS TD 24W CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE, THE 
STEERING CONDITIONS WILL WEAKEN. TD 24W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL 
IN SOUTHERN CHINA AND TRACK BACK TOWARD THE COASTLINE OR BECOME 
QUASI-STATIONARY. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE DYNAMIC 
AIDS AFTER 24 HOURS, HOWEVER THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE EARLY 
PERIOD. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE 
AVAILABLE MODELS FAVORING DISSIPATION UP TO 24 HOURS.
   C. TD 24W WILL REMAIN IN A HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD AND MAKES 
LANDFALL IN CHINA.
   D. SYSTEM DOES NOT MEET CRITERIA FOR WIND RADII.
2. FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/JACOBS/SHERRY/NUTONGLA/JUAREZ//

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