WDPN31 PGTW 120300 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 120000Z3 SEP 02 TO 130000Z4 SEP 02. A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 23W (HAGUPIT), ON LAND APPROXIMATELY 190 NM WEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 112330Z0 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OF 20 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. B. THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER EASTERN CHINA IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS. TD 23W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THIS RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, AFWA MM5, NCEP AVIATION, THE JAPANESE GLOBAL (JGSM) AND TYPHOON (JTYM), UKMET OFFICE MODELS AND PERSISTANCE. C. TD 23W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WEAKENING TREND AND DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT ENCOUNTERS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CHINA AND CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER LAND. D. TD 23W DOES NOT MEET WIND RADII CRITERIA. FORECAST TEAM: MAZANY/KENDALL/RONSSE/MCCOPPIN/SCHAEFER// NNNN