WDPN32 PGTW 071500 SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (SINLAKU) WARNING NR 40// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 071200Z0 TO 081200Z1 SEP 02. A. TYPHOON (TY) 22W, LOCATED OVER LAND NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE FUJIAN PROVINCE OF CHINA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 071130Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC REPORTS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE CENTER AND WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF TS 22W HAS TRACKED OVER LAND. B. TY 22W HAS MADE LANDFALL AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL HIGH OVER EASTERN CHINA. THE JMA GLOBAL (JGSM), JAPAN TYPHOON (JTYM), UKMET (EGRR), NCEP AVIATION (AVN) AND GFDN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL THE AFOREMENTIONED DYNAMIC AIDS. C. TY 22W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER LAND IN EASTERN CHINA. D. WIND RADII ANALYSIS IS BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM. 3. FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/JACOBS/SHERRY/NUTONGLA/JUAREZ// NNNN