WDPN32 PGTW 070300
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 070000Z7 TO 081200Z1 SEP 02.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 22W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM EAST OF THE 
FUJIAN PROVINCE OF CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS 
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 062330Z4 
VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING 
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 TO 
90 KNOTS.  TY 22W HAS TAKEN A TEMPORARY JOG TO THE NORTHWEST INTO 
THE WEAKNESS CREATED BY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE SEA OF 
JAPAN.
   B. A MAJOR SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM THE SEA OF JAPAN INTO THE 
EAST CHINA SEA HAS INFLUENCED THE MOTION AND SPEED OF TY 22W DURING 
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER JAPAN 
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS ALLOWING THE MID-LEVEL HIGH SITUATED OVER 
CENTRAL CHINA TO BUILD OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA. THE JMA GLOBAL, 
UKMET GRID POINT AND GFDN WERE USED AS THE BASIS OF OUR FORECAST.
   C. A WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM 
MOVES BENEATH THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN CHINA. 
   D. WIND RADII ANALYSIS ARE BASED ON THIS AFTERNOON'S QUIKSCAT 
PASS. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-
SIZED SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST TEAM: KENDALL/ROBERTS/RONSSE/SCHAEFER/EDBERG/COOK//

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